European commercial real estate investment volumes are on course to reach approximately €52bn in the first quarter of 2026, a 6% year-on-year increase, according to new research published by Savills. The preliminary figures, released ahead of MIPIM 2026, indicate a market in progressive recovery, with full-year volumes forecast to increase by approximately 16% in 2026 and a further 17% in 2027.
Finland, Ireland and Poland stand out, each expected to post volume growth of 50% or more compared with Q1 last year, while Germany has already returned to positive growth and the UK is recording solid expansion. Irei France is expected to ease slightly, though Savills attributes this to an exceptionally strong comparison base from Q1 2025 rather than any deterioration in fundamentals.
Big-ticket capital is slowly confirming its return, with the largest deal of the quarter being the €2.6bn acquisition of a European factory outlet portfolio across Italy, the Netherlands and Austria, completed by a consortium including AGP Group, Aware Super and BNP Paribas Cardif. Trophy asset transactions have also resumed, including the €402m sale of the office building at 33 avenue des Champs Elysees by Icade, the c.€380m acquisition of the Estel office building in Barcelona by Criteria Caixa, the c.€330m purchase of the Hotel Riu Plaza London by RIU Hotels and Resorts, and the sale of the BHV Marais department store to Brookfield Asset Management. Cushman & Wakefield
Lydia Brissy, Director of European Research at Savills, says: "In terms of sector activity, we have seen several large portfolio transactions in multifamily complete, and hotels have also recorded strong activity. Retail, logistics and offices have seen solid levels of investment, resulting in a relatively balanced sector mix overall."
James Burke, Director of Global Cross Border Investment at Savills, adds: "We anticipate European investment volumes to continue to pick up as the year progresses and expect to see prime yields starting to move in by 25bps or more in some jurisdictions, particularly for high street assets, retail warehouses, logistics, supermarkets and CBD offices."
A critical dimension that will shape deployment decisions in the months ahead is the yield compression signal embedded in Savills' forecast. With real estate allocations at 14.1%, slightly above institutional target levels of 13.9% recorded in 2025, the stage is set for renewed fundraising activity in 2026, while survey data indicates that debt availability is expected to improve over the next twelve months, particularly for core and core-plus strategies. Cushman & Wakefield For developers, this translates into a narrowing window: construction pipelines remain constrained by viability pressures, prime vacancy is low, and rental growth is supported across virtually all sectors. Those who move now on land and prime assets stand to benefit most from the compression cycle ahead.
People
- Lydia Brissy, Director, European Research, Savills
- James Burke, Director, Global Cross Border Investment, Savills
Companies
- Savills, global real estate advisor, publisher of the European Investment Nowcast Q1 2026
- AGP Group, consortium member, acquisition of European factory outlet portfolio
- Aware Super, Australian superannuation fund, consortium member, factory outlet acquisition
- BNP Paribas Cardif, insurance investment arm, consortium member, factory outlet acquisition
- Icade, French real estate company, vendor of 33 avenue des Champs Elysees office building
- Criteria Caixa, Spanish investment group, acquirer of Estel office building, Barcelona
- RIU Hotels and Resorts, acquirer of Hotel Riu Plaza London, c.€330m
- Brookfield Asset Management, acquirer of BHV Marais department store, Paris
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