In the first three months of 2016 only approximately 30,000m² were delivered to the market. At the end of Q1 2016, over 600,000m² of new retail space was under construction, 60% of which is planned to be delivered to the market between April and December 2016. This means that the annual supply will decrease by half in comparison to 2015, according to Colliers International.
A process of the modernisation and remodeling of shopping centres can be observed. Owner activities cover a wide spectrum, including adapting infrastructure for children and people with disabilities, remodeling of common space and food courts, free Wi-Fi, modern navigation and identification systems, interactive information points, relaxation space as well as the modernisation of car parks and the facades of buildings. Tenants are also modernising their stores.
Supply
In Q1 2016, one retail project was completed – Galeria Glogovia (approx. 21,000m²) where Piotr i Paweł, Media Expert, C&A, LPP group, Martes Sport and Cinema 3D operator opened their stores.
The next phase of the extension of Warsaw‘s Atrium Promenada (3,500m²) was opened, where the largest in Poland H&M shop can be found.
In the last quarter, modernisation commenced on several shopping centres (including Galeria Słowiańska in Zgorzelec). Moreover, renovations of the Morena shopping centre, Auchan and ETC in Gdańsk, ETC in Swarzędź, Silesia City Centre in Katowice and Pasaż Grunwaldzki in Wrocław are ongoing.
Demand
In Q1 2016, several retail chains debuted in Poland, for example the first Tallinder store of LPP group was opened in Galeria Bałtycka. A new Polish brand, Up8 (sport fashion), debuted in Galeria Riviera in Gdynia. In January, the first franchise of the American Skechers chain (shoes & accessories) was opened in Warsaw’s Galeria Mokotów.
Lease transactions announced at the beginning of the year included: Helios Cinema in Blue City in Warsaw (8 screens), Alma supermarket in Galeria Libero in Katowice (1 900m²), H&M in Nowa Stacja in Pruszków (2,180m²), TK Maxx in Manufaktura in Łódź (2,270m²), Sports Direct in Galeria Metropolia in Gdańsk (1,660m²) and P&C in Poznań City Centre (4,500m²).
There are observed several new omnichannel activities. The main event in the e-commerce sector was the entry of Uterque group’s new fashion brand Inditex. In the analysed period, CCC took a 74.99% share in eobuwie.pl.
In Q1 2016, the Empik M&F and Bridgepoint fund signed a preliminary agreement for the sale of companies from the Smyk group. The value of transactions exceeded PLN 1 milliard.
Vacancy rate
The average vacancy rate noted for eight major agglomerations at the end of December 2015 stood at 2.9%. In the case of large cities (population of 200,000–400,000) it amounted to 4%.
Among the main major retail markets, Warsaw has the lowest vacancy rate (1.5%). The largest amount of available space is in Poznań (4%).
Among large cities (200,000-400,000 inhabitants), Bydgoszcz has the largest availability of retail space (6%), while the lowest is noted in Lublin (1.6%).
Prognosis
The largest retail project that is currently under construction is Posnania (approximately 100,000m²), whose space is over a quarter of the total supply in 2016. Other significant shopping centres under construction are: Wroclavia (64,000m²), Galeria Północna in Warsaw (64,000m²) and Forum Gdańsk (62,000m²).
„We are observing a define return of the largest agglomerations, where 75% of the total space currently under construction can be found. Nevertheless, developers’ interest in smaller markets is not decreasing – 25% of supply is under construction in cities with a population under 100,000 inhabitants,” said Dominika Jędrak, Director, Research and Consultancy Services, Colliers International.
The role of large food operators as the main attraction in shopping centres is decreasing. In projects that are currently under construction, including Wroclavia, Galeria Metropolia, Forum Gdańsk, Serenada in Kraków, as well as Gemini Park Tychy, the food operator occupies only 2,000m².
