Kempen & Co has published its new European Property Sector COMPASS, which includes eleven favourites for the coming period out of seven countries. They have also drawn up a Watch List, including three stocks for which they identified a specific trigger that could induce substantial short-term share price movements.
The list of Favourites are Beni Stabili (Italy), Kaufman & Broad (France), Gecina (France) VastNed Retail (Netherlands), Hammerson (UK), Inmobiliaria Colonial (Spain), Urbis (Spain), Citycon (Finland), Sponda (Finland), Deutsche EuroShop (Germany), and IVG Immobilien (Germany).
The Watch List includes: Unibail (France), Deutsche Wohnen (Germany) and AM (Netherlands).
The forecast for 2005 is that the European listed property sector will post an average total return of 15% (2004: 34%; 2003: 21%). This is based on the following components:
- share prices keeping up the pace in the next 12 months with our expected 3% FY 2004/06E NNAV CAGR,
- 7-8% expansion of the current 2% premium to NNAV (10-15% peak premiums to NNAV as seen in 1996-1998 could form a level of resistance) and 4.5% of dividends over 2004.
In this issue of the COMPASS, Kempen has upgraded VastNed Retail (from Neutral to Add; PT from €48.5 to €53.0), Metrovacesa (from Neutral to Add; PT from €34.0 to €39.0), and has downgraded Bail Investissement (from Neutral to Reduce; PT from €27.5 to €31.0).
Moreover, new price targets have been set for:
- CA Immobilien (CAI AV) - Austria - from €18.0 to €19.0
- Immofinanz (IIA AV) - Austria - from €7.0 to €7.25
- Sponda (SDA1V FH) - Finland - from €7.4 to €7.8
- Gecina (GFC FP) - France - from €73.0 to €82.0
- Klépierre (LI FP) - France - from €59.0 to €68.5
- SILIC (SIL FP) - France - from €58.0 to €70.0
- Unibail (UL FP) - France - from €108.0 to €118.0
- Hamborner (HAB GR) - Germany - from €20.0 to €23.0
- Beni Stabili (BNS IM) - Italy - from €0.80 to €0.85
- NSI (NSI NA) - Netherlands