The global grocery retail market is on track to generate an additional €370bn ($440bn) in sales between 2020 and 2022, yielding a 3.1% CAGR (compound annual growth rate), according to the latest forecast from global insight provider IGD. This follows an exceptional growth for grocery in 2020, which saw the top 20 markets grow by €235bn ($280bn) – an 8.8% YoY growth. Accelerated growth in most of the global retail market in 2020 was driven by a shift in consumer spending from out-of-home to at-home as a result of pandemic lockdown restrictions.
Key findings from the periodical global forecasts which have been recalibrated to account for the onset of COVID-19:
- India will be the fastest-growing country over the period 2020-22 with a CAGR of 7.2%
- The US will remain the leading market until 2022
- In the medium-term, Central and Eastern Europe is expected to grow faster than Western Europe
- Growth in China will remain robust and the accelerated shift towards online will continue
- The UK’s changing retail landscape will retain some of its new features such as online shopping and big weekly shops
Head of EMEA Jon Wright said: “Economic challenges are expected across most of Western Europe in 2021, so retailers will need to focus on price to remain competitive. Pre-COVID trends have been accelerated by the pandemic, which has hastened the switch to online across most markets, resulting in further investment in this channel. In the UK, following a dramatic shift of consumer spend from foodservice into grocery retail in 2020, sales growth will moderate as the national vaccination programme allows the hospitality sector to reopen. Online is set to retain its elevated market share and big weekly shops will remain popular. Winding down of financial support and rising unemployment will result in some households economising on grocery shopping while others may spend less as eating out begins to recover.”