According to JLL, 2015 saw the Polish retail market grow by a total of 651,400m² worth of retail space, including shopping centres (502,000m²), outlet centres (21,300 m²), retail parks (30,800m²) and stand-alone warehouses (97,300m²).
Anna Bartoszewicz-Wnuk, head of research and consulting at JLL, said: “2015 was a very busy year on Poland's retail market with shopping centre completions totaling 502,000m². It is a considerable increase on 2014 when 332,000m² entered the market, and the most active year since 2009. 2016 will be calmer in terms of new deliveries – if everything goes according to schedule, shopping centre stock will grow by 358,000m²”.
At the beginning of 2016, total modern retail stock in Poland amounted to 13.01 million m² in the following retail formats: 9.28 million m² (71%) in shopping centres; 3.52 million m² (27%) in retail parks and stand-alone warehouses; and 0.21 million m² (2%) in outlet centres.
“In total, current construction activity that involves shopping centres stands at 566,000m² of GLA, which is 20% lower than in the same period last year. The highest amount of space being developed is in major agglomerations”, Anna Bartoszewicz-Wnuk added.
Demand and brand expansion
In 2015, 18 international brands entered the Polish market. Last year's most highly anticipated fashion debut on the Polish retail market was that of Superdry. Other brands that made their debut last year included Kiabi, with an extensive offer for families, sports brands Decimas and Courir as well as Origins from the cosmetics segment. In addition, 2015 saw brands such as Dunkin’ Donuts, Fuddruckers, Dairy Queen, Benihana open stores in Poland. However, some retailers (Czech Bata, American GAP, and Russian Centro) decided to withdraw from the Polish market. Nevertheless, JLL believes such exits should not be considered symptomatic of a wider trend.
Polish retailers are growing stronger and successfully expanding their portfolios. Good examples, from the LPP Group, are á Tab, which opened 13 shops in 2015, and Tallinder, a more upmarket fashion concept that will open its first store in 2016.
Some international brands, such as H&M, are developing dynamically as well and are seeking space for new concepts, including, for example, interior design.
Another trend that is noticeable is the expansion of the non-shopping offer in shopping centres.
Investment market – highest result since 2006
Agnieszka Kołat, national director, Retail Investment CEE, JLL, commented: “2015 was an excellent year in the retail investment sector. Projects worth over €2.26bn changed hands last year - the market's best result since 2006's record breaking performance”.
One of the key deals in 2015 was by Griffin Real Estate, which acquired a majority stake in Echo Investment, an experienced Polish developer.
“Traditionally, retail investors were most interested in prime schemes located in major agglomerations. Good examples of this are the spectacular sale transactions of Riviera in Gdynia, Stary Browar in Poznań and Bonarka City Center in Kraków. Nevertheless, projects with strong positions located in smaller cities were also attracting buyers. Investor interest in the retail sector remains high. This translates into prime yield compression to 5.0% in the case of the best prime dominant schemes”, Agnieszka Kołat, added.
