Moderate retail growth in Germany leads to redistribution of turnover (DE)

Despite lingering concerns regarding the economic crisis, GfK GeoMarketing's new prognosis of Germany's 2012 regional retail turnover shows that turnover potential has increased by approximately one percent. Retail locations in areas with strong retail drawing power may experience even greater growth, although this gain will come at the expense of weaker retail locations.

Germany's 2012 stationary retail turnover will rise by approximately 1% from the previous year's level to €410.1 billion. This is one of the findings of GfK GeoMarketing's study "GfK Retail Turnover 2012," which is a prognosis of point-of-sale turnover in Germany.

"The shaky euro is an incentive to spend, which should bring some life to the retail scene in 2012," explains Manuel Jahn, retail real estate expert at GfK GeoMarketing. "However, the retail sector also faces rising costs of raw materials and increasing wholesale prices in many segments. It cannot fully pass these on to end-consumers, as the currently positive consumer mood is an important stabilizing factor both within and beyond the retail sector."

GfK GeoMarketing's study calculates regional retail turnover for all of Germany's districts and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants. As such, the study is a valuable benchmark for retail companies, particularly for branch-network and expansion planning as well as controlling.

"Amidst an overall climate of modest turnover growth, locations with already robust retail turnover should be able to profit from weaker locations," explains Jahn. "It's therefore more crucial than ever that retailers not only offer consumers attractive goods or services, but also position themselves in regions with strong retail drawing power. Strategic expansion planning and branch network management is particularly vital for securing and safeguarding market share in slow-growth periods."

High turnover in highly populated areas
Germany's most populated districts generate the most turnover. Berlin, Hamburg and Munich therefore top the turnover rankings. Germany's top 15 districts together generate 21.3%, or around one-fifth, of the country's total retail turnover.

Everything is relative
An entirely different list of districts emerges when turnover is evaluated relative to number of inhabitants: The Bavarian districts of Straubing, Weiden, Passau, Schweinfurt and Rosenheim have per-capita turnover levels that are twice that of the national average. This means that these districts draw purchasing power from well beyond their boundaries, leading to turnover levels significantly higher than the retail purchasing power of the local inhabitants.

Source: Gfk

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