Thursday 5 January 2012

The accelerating slowdown in China and the euro zone summit of December 9 were the two most significant economic developments of the last month. Both of these events point to further monetary stimulus in 2012. The fall of the China manufacturing PMI, from 50.4 in October to 47.7, was widely reported in the press. We think this understates the scale of the slowdown. Our own in house indicator of economic activity, which ranges between 2 and -2 with 0 indicating trend growth, has fallen to -0.6. With inflation falling, China should ease monetary policy quite quickly by cutting reserve requirements and, in 2012, interest rates. More...

According to the latest data from CBRE, commercial property investment volumes in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) totaled €8.7 billion at the end of November 2011, twice the level registered in the same period in 2010. Based on the pipeline of deals waiting to be closed till the year-end, 2011 investment turnover could become CEE’s third strongest year in history. The year’s total is significantly below the peak achieved in 2007 (€14.6 billion); however, it is already close to the third strongest achieved in 2008 of €9.5 billion. More...

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