European logistics yield falls below 6% in Q2 2018

European logistics yield falls below 6%

The overall European logistics yield dropped 14bps to 5.95% in Q2 2018, the first time it has fallen below 6% since Cushman & Wakefield began consistently tracking the three main property sectors in 1992, according to the firm’s DNA of Real Estate report.

 

All logistics markets monitored in Germany, Italy and Sweden recorded inward yield movements during the second quarter, and a couple of UK locations also contributed to the overall shift down to 5.95%. About a third of the monitored office locations saw some yield compression with a prime weighted average down from 4.49% to 4.42%. In contrast, high street retail yields softened in a few locations and the overall prime yield moved out by 1bps to 4.19%. Despite the fall in the prime logistics yield below 6%, the gap relative to office and retail is still higher than in the previous cycle.

 

Office rents grew at a robust rate of 0.8% q-o-q with several markets – across different countries and regions in Europe – seeing increases up to 5%. Limited rental growth was recorded in the retail sector while rental correction in Turkey offset this growth, resulting in the weighted average rent 0.1% lower than the first quarter.

 

Overall high street retail rents softened marginally by 0.1% with growth recorded in just five markets q-o-q. More than half the monitored markets had no movement in rents at all in the past 12 months. Budapest topped the rental growth for a second quarter with a 7.7% increase q-o-q and 16.7% y-o-y, reflecting strong local consumption and demand from retailers. Lisbon followed closely at 4.0% growth q-o-q and 13.0% y-o-y.

 

Nigel Almond, Head of Data Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield EMEA Research & Insight, said: “Berlin is the only German office market where rental growth was recorded in Q2, although with the support of solid economic fundamentals and occupational demand, we expect prime rents to grow further, along with other leading German cities in the second half of 2018. Following recent modest falls, rents across London were flat in Q2, in part supported by relatively strong leasing market activity. But Brexit uncertainties, weaker job creation, and above-average completions places the risk on the downside for the evolution of rents in the short to medium term”.

 

Lisa Graham, Head of EMEA Industrial and Logistics Research & Insight, Cushman & Wakefield,added: “Logistics properties have increasingly become a desirable asset for real estate investors on the back of the growth for e-commerce and the streamlining of supply chains, and now account for a growing share of investment activity supporting a strong reduction in yields over this period. Yields in almost all monitored markets are at their 10-year low, although we believe there is still room for further downward movement in selected markets during the second half of the year.”

 

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